نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی و اقتصادی، دانشگاه الزهرا، تهران، ایران
2 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The purpose of this research is to investigate the macro effects of the continuation of the existing conditions of pension plans in Iran's aging society on the country's economy. For this purpose, a dynamic general balance model has been used in the form of overlapping generations model and time series information of national accounts from 1350 to 1398. The implicit assumption in this study is that the aging of the population has affected economic variables through the mechanism of consumption and savings patterns, and the consumption pattern of people in youth and old age is also different, and also following the change in the consumption pattern in different generations, the savings pattern of people is also different. It will be different (the same) and as a result, investment and interest rate will also be affected between the mentioned two generations.
Therefore, considering this premise, two scenarios of implementation and non-implementation of reforms and their effects on the variables of GDP per capita, savings of working people, savings of the whole society, investment, nominal interest rate and government expenses in the field of health and treatment have been examined.
The obtained results show that the aging of the population and the lack of implementation of structural reforms of pension plans in the society will reduce the GDP per capita and and led to a decrease in national savings per capita. The implementation of structural reforms will reduce the GDP per capita less and it will lead to increased savings.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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