آزمون فرضیه منحنی زیست‌محیطی کوزنتس در اقتصاد ایران با تاکید بر نقش متغیرهای توسعه ای: رویکرد ARDL تعمیم‌یافته با شکست ساختاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه ایلام

2 کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد انرژی، دانشگاه ایلام

3 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، دانشگاه ارومیه، ایران

چکیده

 
ایران به‌عنوان یکی از آلوده‌ترین کشورهای جهان، با چالش‌های افزایش انتشار CO2 و اثر زیست‌محیطی آن، روبرو است. برای اینکه ایران به رشد پایدار دست یابد، باید عواملی را که باعث کاهش آلودگی محیط‌زیست است را شناسایی نمود. برای این منظور، این مطالعه به‌صورت تجربی، به بررسی اثر درآمد، سرمایه انسانی، جهانی‌شدن، مصرف انرژی تجدیدپذیر و باز بودن تجارت بر تخریب محیط‌زیست برای ایران را در چارچوب فرضیه منحنی محیط‌زیست کوزنتس (EKC) بررسی می‌کند. در این مقاله، رویکرد ARDL تعمیم‌یافته با لحاظ یک شکست ساختاری برای بررسی داده‌های سالانه سری زمانی طی دوره 1396-1358 به کار گرفته ‌شده است. این یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که فرضیه EKC برای ایران صدق نمی‌کند و یک رابطه درجه ‌دو U شکل بین آلودگی محیط‌زیست و سطح درآمد برای انتشار CO2 و ردپای بوم‌شناختی تعیین‌ شده است. نتایج، همچنین حاکی از آن است که جهانی‌سازی، باز بودن تجارت و درآمد، باعث آلودگی محیط‌زیست می‌شود؛ درحالی‌که افزایش سرمایه انسانی، ردپای بوم‌شناختی را در بلندمدت کاهش می‌دهد. مصرف انرژی تجدیدپذیر باعث کاهش ردپای بوم‌شناختی می‌شود؛ اما بر انتشار CO2 تأثیری ندارد. یافته­های این مطالعه، نشان می‌دهد که سرمایه انسانی، نقش اساسی در کاهش تخریب محیط‌زیست در ایران دارد و انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر برای تأمین نیازهای زیست‌محیطی، کافی نیست.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Test of Kuznets Environmental Curve Hypothesis in Iranian Economy with Emphasis on the Role of Key Variables: Augmented ARDL Approach with a Structural Break

نویسندگان [English]

  • Heshmatollah Asgari 1
  • Fatemeh Havasbeigi 2
  • Ali Moridian 3
1 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Ilam University
2 Master of Energy Economics, Ilam University
3 PhD student in economics, Urmia University, Iran
چکیده [English]

As one of the most polluted countries in the world, Iran faces the challenges of increasing CO2 emissions and its environmental impact. In order for Iran to achieve sustainable growth, it is necessary to identify the factors that reduce environmental pollution. To this end, this study empirically examines the environmental consequences of income, human capital, globalization, renewable energy consumption and trade openness for Iran within the framework of the Kuznets Environmental Curve (EKC) hypothesis. In this paper, the Augmented ARDL Approach with a Structural Break is used to examine the annual time series data during the period 1979-2017. These findings indicate that the EKC hypothesis does not apply to Iran and that a U-shaped relationship between environmental pollution and income levels for CO2 emissions and ecological footprints has been established. The results also show that globalization, open trade and income pollute the environment, while increasing human capital reduces the ecological footprint in the long run. Renewable energy consumption reduces the ecological footprint but has no effect on CO2 emissions. This study shows that human capital has a key role in reducing environmental degradation in Iran and renewable energy is not enough to meet environmental needs.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • EKC Hypothesis
  • Ecological Footprint
  • Globalization
  • AARDL

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دوره 8، شماره 1 - شماره پیاپی 21
فروردین 1401
صفحه 199-234

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