Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
PhD student, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
2
Associate Professor, Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
3
Assistant Professor, Economics of Department, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
4
Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
Abstract
In economic discussions, particular attention has been given to the role of economic openness in promoting growth. Additionally, political conditions and international economic factors, including sanctions, play a significant role in economic growth, which collectively influence poverty levels in a country. This study adopts a different perspective to examine the impact of economic openness uncertainty and sanctions on poverty in Iran. To model the uncertainty of these factors, a fuzzy regression method was applied, using membership degrees of 0.1 and 0.9, representing the reduction and increase in the effect of economic openness uncertainty and sanctions on poverty from 1986 to 2023. Given the flexibility of fuzzy regression, the right, middle, and left width, which indicate the intensity of the impact of each variable under uncertainty, were calculated using the Wild Horse metaheuristic algorithm to achieve the optimal state. The results showed that the right width of the sanctions and economic openness variables under increased uncertainty, with coefficients of 8.185 and 1.658 respectively, had the greatest impact on rising poverty. In contrast, under reduced uncertainty, the sanctions and economic openness variables, with coefficients of 0.184 and 1.574 respectively, had the least impact on increasing poverty. By comparing the trends of right, left, and middle widths with the actual poverty trend in the country, it can be stated that sanctions significantly affect poverty through the channel of trade openness.
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