Assessing the job creation of Iran's economic sectors by emphasizing intermediate imports

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Postdoctoral Researcher in Economics, Alzahra University

2 MA in Economics, Alzahra University

Abstract

One of the current problems of Iran's economy is the high unemployment rate. According to the latest report from the Statistics Center of Iran, the unemployment rate has been more than 10 percent. One way to create jobs is to export goods and services, which creates the need for labor in the export sector. However, it should be noted that exports also import goods and services in order to supply raw materials, intermediate goods and technology. Therefore, while exports lead to job creation, imports are lost. In this study, by using the input-output table of 1390, the Statistics Center of Iran, the employment amount of exports and also reduction of employment of imports for export 14 major economic sectors of Iran, is determined. In this regard, the model introduced by Tacero et al. (2017) is used. The results show that the amount of employment created by exports, with the deduction of intermediate imports for export, is 2,034,501 Person. totally, intermediate imports for export have lost 170,440 jobs. Among the economic sectors, the agricultural sector has lost the most jobs due to intermediate imports from exports. This amount is calculated as 58,504 people, which is 34% of the total lost employment due to intermediate imports for export.

Keywords


-            افروز، آزاده. (1390). مطالعه آزاد سازی تجارت خارجی بر اشتغال بخش های اقتصادی. ماهنامه کار و جامعه، 20 (136): 54-41.
-            امینی، علی رضا؛ خسروی نژاد، علی اکبر و علی زاده، زهرا. (1391). تحلیل تأثیر توسعه صادرات بر اشتغال؛ مطالعه موردی صنایع با فناوری بالا در ایران. فصلنامه علوم اقتصادی، 6 (19): 135-173.
-            پاشازانوس، پگاه؛ بانویی، علی اصغر و بهرامی، جاوید. (1392). تحلیل های سیاستی نقش واردات در سنجش اهمیت بخش­های اقتصاد ایران. فصلنامه پژوهشنامه بازرگانی، 18 (67): 81-100.
-            جعفری هرندی، زهرا. (1379). صادرات غیر نفتی و اشتغال. پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد رشته اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و سیاسی دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.
-            ساداتی، اعظم السادات. (1384). بررسی و تجزیه و تحلیل تأثیر تجارت آزاد بر اشتغال (مورد ایران). رساله دکتری، دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه تهران.
-            عیسی­زاده، سعید و حسینی، سعیده سادات. (1393). مطالعه آثار تجارت با چین بر اشتغال بخش صنعت ایران. فصلنامه پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، 14 (55): 105-126.
-            فرزانه، محمد. (1390). تحلیل اثرات بهره وری و تجارت بر اشتغال صنایع کارخانه ای ایران در سال­های 1386-1374. پایان نامه کارشناسی ارشد رشته علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد دانشگاه اصفهان.
-            کمیجانی، اکبر، و عیسی زاده، سعید. (1380). تأثیرات اجزای تقاضای نهایی بر اشتغال بخش های اقتصادی. مجله تحقیقات اقتصادی، 36 (59): 1-35.
-            گرجی، ابراهیم؛ علی پوریان، معصومه و سرمدی، حسین. (1389). تأثیر جهانی شدن اقتصاد بر اشتغال در ایران (و برخی کشورهای در حال توسعه). فصلنامه دانش و توسعه، 17 (32): 111-127.
-            مهدوی، ابوالقاسم. (1396). تجارت بین الملل( نظریه ها و سیاست ها). تهران: انتشارات دانشگاه تهران، چاپ سوم.
-            هوشمند، محمود؛ دانش نیا، محمد؛ عبدالهی، زهرا و اسکندری پور، زهره. (1389). عوامل موثر بر صادرات غیر نفتی ایران. فصلنامه دانش و توسعه، 17 (34): 126-135.
 
-        Abraham, F., & Brock, E. (2013). Sectoral employment effects of trade and productivity in europe. Applied Economics, 35 (2), 223-238.
-        Afrooz, A. (2011). The study of the liberalization of foreign trade on the employment of economic sectors. Work and Society Monthly, 20(136), 41-54 (In Persian).
-        Amini, A., Khosravi Nejad, A., & Alizadeh, Z. (2012). Analysis of the impact of export development on employment; A case study of high technology industries in Iran, Journal of Economic Sciences, 6 (19), 135-173 (In Persian).
-        Bayerl, N., Fritz, O., & Hierlander, R. (2008). Die gesamtwirtscbaftlicben Effecte der Exports seit1995. Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO). No .11/2008
-        Farzaneh, M. (2011). Analysis of the effects of productivity and trade on employment of Iran's factory industries in 2007-2005. Master Thesis in Economics, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan (In Persian).
-        Feenstra, R. C., Ma, H., & Xu, Y. (2019). US exports and employment. Journal of International Economics, 120(1), 46-58.
-        Gorji, E., Ali Pourian, M. & Sarmadi, H. (2010). The impact of globalization on employment in Iran (and some developing countries). Quarterly Journal of Knowledge and Development, 17(32), 111-127 (In Persian).
-        Hooshmand, M., Daneshnia, M., Abdollahi, Z., & Eskandaripoor, Z. (2010). Factors affecting Iran's non-oil exports, Quarterly Journal of Knowledge and Development, 17(34), 126-135 (In Persian).
-        Issazadeh, S., & Hosseini, S. (2014). Studying the effects of trade with China on employment in Iran's industrial sector. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, 14(55), 105-126 (In Persian).
-        Jafari Harandi, Z. (2000). Non-oil exports and employment. Master Thesis in Theoretical Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University (In Persian).
-        Kiyota, K. (2016). Exports and employment in China, Indonesia, Japan and Korea. Asian Economic Papers, 15(1), 57-72.
-        Komijani, A. and Issazadeh, S. (2001). Effects of final demand components on employment of economic sectors. Journal of Economic Research, 36(59), 1-35 (In Persian).
-        Mahdavi, A. (2017). International Trade (Theories and Policies). Tehran University Press, Third edition (In Persian).
-        Pashazanus, P., Banoei, A. & Bahrami, J. (2013). Policy analysis of the role of imports in measuring the importance of Iran's economic sectors, Quarterly Journal of Business Research, 18(67), 81-100 (In Persian).
-        Sadati, A. (2005). Investigating and analyzing the impact of free trade on employment (in the case of Iran). PhD Thesis, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran (In Persian).
-        Sasahara, A. (2019). Explain the employment effect of exports: Value-added content matters. Journal of the Japanese and International Economics, 52(3), 1-21.
-        Statistics Center of Iran. (2019). Input-Output Table for the Year 2011, WWW.SCI.ORG
-        Tacero, M. D., Pablos, M. I., & Benito, S. (2016). Exports and employment in the Spanish economy: A repetitive patter. Investigacion Economica, 76(31), 137-169.