Effect of Military Spending on Unemployment in Selected Developing Countries Using Panel Mean Group Approach

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Professor, Bu-Ali Sina University of Hamedan

2 Lorestan University

Abstract

This paper tries to investigate the effect of military spending on unemployment in selected developing countries during the period of 1995-2014. For this purpose, first, a model has been designed with the presence of fundamental variables affecting unemployment rate alongside the share of military spending from GDP variable. Then, using the panel co-integration tests the long-run equilibrium relationship between the model variables has been confirmed. Finally, the Panel Mean Group (PMG) approach has been used to measure the long-term and short-term relationships. The findings indicate the positive impact of the share of military spending from GDP on the unemployment rate and confirm the Abrams curve in the military sector. By contrast, the effect of the share of non-military spending from GDP on the unemployment rate is negative and rejects the Abrams curve in the civilian sector. Based on the other results, economic growth and inflation have negative effects on unemployment rate, which confirm the Okan's law and the Philips curve in the selected economies, respectively

Keywords


 
-        امینی، علیرضا و مرادزاده، سلاله. (1394). تحلیل تأثیر آزادسازی تجاری بر نرخ بیکاری: مطالعه موردی کشورهای منتخب در حال توسعه. فصلنامه اقتصاد مالی، دوره 9، شماره 31، صص 94-77.
-        انصاری‌سامانی، حبیب و خیل‌کردی، رباب. (1395). تأثیر اندازه دولت بر بیکاری: بررسی منحنی آبرامز در کشورهای توسعه‌یافته و درحال‌توسعه. فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادسنجی، دوره 2، شماره 1، صص 134-113.
-        دیزجی، منیژه؛ پناهی، حسین و تقی‌زاده، حجت. (1388). اثر هزینه‌های نظامی بر بدهی‌های خارجی در کشورهای درحال‌توسعه. فصلنامه مدلسازی اقتصادی، سال سوم، شماره 1، صص 136-117.
-        زراء‌نژاد، منصور و حسین‌پور، عبدالکریم. (1395). اثر اندازه دولت بر روی نرخ بیکاری در ایران. فصلنامه پژوهش‌های اقتصادی، شماره 1، صص 209-191.
-        کریمی پتانلار، سعید؛ نادمی، یونس و زبیری، هدی. (1394). اندازه دولت و بیکاری در اقتصاد ایران. فصلنامه رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، دوره 5، شماره 18، صص 64-51. 
-        گل‌خندان، ابوالقاسم؛ خوانساری، مجتبی و گل‌خندان، داود. (1394). نظامی‌گری و رشد اقتصادی: شواهدی تجربی از کشورهای منطقه منا در قالب الگوی پانل‌پویا. فصلنامه رشد و توسعه اقتصادی، دوره 5، شماره 8، صص 50-31. 
-        Abell, J. D. (1990). Defense spending and unemployment rates: an empirical analysis disaggregated by race. Cambridge Journal of Economics14(4), 405-419.
-        Abell, J. D. (1992). Defense spending and unemployment rates. American Journal of Economics and Sociology51(1), 27-42.
-        Abrams, B. A. (1999). The effect of government size on the unemployment rate. Public Choice99(3-4), 395-401.
                           -            Amini,Alireza; Moradzade Solaleh,(2015). Analysis of the Effects of Trade Liberalization on the Unemployment Rate: A Case Study of Selected Developing Countries.Journal of Financial Economics , Volume 9, Issue 31, Page 77-94.(in Persian)
-        Ando, S. (2009).    The    impact    of    defense expenditure on economic growth: panel data analysis   based   on   the   Feder   model. The International    Journal    of    Economic    Policy Studies, 4(8), 141-154.
-        Ansari Samani, Habib & Robabeh Khilkordi (2016). The Effect of Government Size on Unemployment: Study of Abrams Curve in Developed and Developing Countries. Journal of Econometric Modelling, Volume 2, Issue 1, Page 113-134. .(in Persian)
-        Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, 3rd. Edition. McGraw-Hill.
-        Bangake, C., & Eggoh, J. C. (2011). The Feldstein–Horioka puzzle in African countries: A panel co-integration analysis. Economic Modelling28(3), 939-947.
-        Barker, T., Dunne, P., & Smith, R. (1991). Measuring the peace dividend in the United Kingdom. Journal of Peace Research28(4), 345-358.
-        Benoit, E. (1973). Defense and economic growth in developing countries. Boston, MA: Health and CO, Lexington Books.
-        Blackburne, E. F., & Frank, M. W. (2007). Estimation of no stationary heterogeneous panels. Stata Journal7(2), 197-208.
-        Chester, E. (1978). Military spending and capitalist stability. Cambridge Journal of Economics2(3), 293-298.
-        Dizaji, Manijeh; Panahi, Hussein & Taghizadeh, Hojjat (2009). Effects of Military Costs on Eliminating Foreign Debts in Developing Countries. Quarterly Journal of Economical Modeling, Volume 3, Issue 7, Page 117-136. .(in Persian)
-        Dunne, J. P., & Smith, R. (1990). Military expenditure and employment in the OECD. Defense Economics, 1, 57-73.
-        Dunne, P., & Watson, D. (2005). Manufacturing labor demand, technological progress and military expenditure. Frontiers in Finance and Economics2(1), 18-30.
-        Golkhandan, Abolghasem; Khansari, Mojtaba & Davood Golkhandan (2015). Militarism and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from the MENA Region Countries Using Dynamic Panel Model. Economic Growth and Development Research, Volume 5, Issue 18, Page 50-31. .(in Persian)
-        Griffin, L. J., Devine, J. A., & Wallace, M. (1982). Monopoly capital, organized labor, and military expenditures in the United States, 1949-1976. American Journal of Sociology88, S113-S153.
-        Hooker, M. A., & Knetter, M. M. (1997). The effects of military spending on economic activity: Evidence from state procurement spending. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 400-421.
-        Hoyos, R. E., & Sarafidis, V. (2006). Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models. Stata Journal6(4), 482.
-        Huang, J. T. & Kao, A. P. (2005). Does defense spending matter to employment in Taiwan?. Defense and Peace Economics16(2), 101-115.
-        Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics115(1), 53-74.
-        Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for co-integration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics90(1), 1-44.
-        Karimipatanlar, Saeed; Nademi, Younes & Hoda Zobeiri (2015). Government Size and Unemployment in Iran. Economic Growth and Development Research, Volume 5, Issue 18, Page 64-51. .(in Persian)
-        Karras, G. (1993). Employment and output effects of government spending:  is government size important?  Economic Inquiry, 31(3), 354-369.
-        Khan, M.A. (2016). Military expenditures and unemployment nexus for selected South Asian Countries. Social Indicators Research, 127(3), 1103-1117.
-        Malizard, J. (2014). Defense spending and unemployment in France. Defense and Peace Economics25(6), 635-642.
-        Michael, C., & Stelios, R. (2017). Defense spending and unemployment: Evidence from southern European countries. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy23(1).
-        Narayan, P. K. & Smyth, R. (2009). A panel data analysis of the military expenditure-external debt nexus: Evidence from six Middle Eastern countries.  Journal of Peace Research, 46(2), 235-250.
-        Navarro, M. S. & Cabello, M. V. (2015). The causal relationship between military spending and unemployment in the EU15. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2550136 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2550136.
-        Paul, S. (1996). Defense spending and unemployment rates: an empirical analysis for the OECD. Journal of Economic Studies23(2), 44-54.
-        Payne, J. E., & Ross, K. L. (1992). Defense spending and the macro economy. Defense and Peace Economics3(2), 161-168.
-        Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel co-integration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series test with an application to the PPP hypothesis. Econometric Theory20(3), 597-625.
-        Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. Working Paper.
-        Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. P. (1999). Pooled mean group estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of the American Statistical Association94(446), 621-634.
-        Qiong, L., & Junhua, H. (2015). Military expenditure and unemployment in China. Procedia Economics and Finance30, 498-504.
-        Simoes, M. C. (2011). Education composition and growth: a pooled mean group analysis of OECD countries. Panoeconomicus58(4), 455-471.
-        Smith, R. P. (1977). Military expenditure and capitalism. Cambridge Journal of Economics1(1), 61-76.
-        Tang, J. H., Lai, C. C., & Lin, E. S. (2009). Military expenditure and unemployment rates: Granger causality tests using global panel data. Defense and Peace Economics20(4), 253-267.
-        Wing, M. M. (1991). Defense spending and employment in Indonesia. Defense and Peace Economics3(1), 83-92.
-        Yildirim, J., & Sezgin, S. (2003). Military expenditure and employment in Turkey. Defense and Peace Economics14(2), 129-139.
-        Yildirim, J., Ocal, N., & Keskin, H. (2011). Military expenditures, economic growth and spatial spillovers: A global perspective. In International Conference on Applied Economics-ICOAE.
-        Zarranejad, Mansour & Abdolkarim Hosseinpoor (2016). The effect of government size on unemployment rate in Iran. Economic Research, Volume 16, Issue 1, Page 191-209. .(in Persian)
-        Zhong, M., Chang, T., Tang, D. P., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2015). The causal nexus between military spending and unemployment in the G7: a bootstrap panel causality test. Defense and Peace Economics26(6), 609-622.