Analysis of Predictability of Sectoral and Aggregate Output Using Input-Output Models: with Emphasis on Mature Sectors

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 MA Student in Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University

2 Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University

3 Assistant Professor of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University

Abstract

Prediction of variables is one of the main tasks of different sciences including economics. According to the existing literature, the Leontief demand-side model (LDM) and Ghosh supply-side model (GSM) are used to predict sectoral output. The prerequisite for predicting sectoral output is to identify the mature and immature sectors. In this paper, we predict sectoral output for two periods: First, we predict output in 1999 based on the output structure in 1988, as the endpoint of war and beginning of the reconstruction of economy. Then, we predict output in 2004 based on the output structure in 1999, as the initial point of post-reconstruction of the economy. For two periods mentioned, LDM provides low error in predicting aggregate output and is of more predictability than GSM. In addition, for the second period. i.e., post-war and construction period, GSM compared to LDM only provides low error in predicting output in mining sector among agriculture, construction and mining sectors. Therefore, mining sector appears as mature sector, and agriculture and construction sectors are considered as less-matured sectors.

Keywords

References

 
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Iranian Economic Development Analyses
Volume 4, Issue 2 - Serial Number 11
September 2016
Pages 9-38

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